Hillary and the Balloons.

I'm looking at the pictures of Hillary among the balloons...as a theatre type...and thinking to myself, a bit uncomfortably...

"She may have intelligence and experience and ruthlessness going for her, but she is a TERRIBLE actor. I mean, just...God help us..."

(A bit like Gordon Brown...when compared to Tony Blair...only being America. the contrast with Trump is like...more so)
Does it matter? Yeah. It does.

She is a bad actor. She knows she is a bad actor...like Gordon Brown did. This makes her uncomfortable. Watching a bad actor on stage or screen BEING uncomfortable is unbearable. It makes YOU uncomfortable. It makes you feel trapped in their agony.

Trump, whatever his deep seated personality problems - and boy are they deep, and BOY are they problems - comes across as completely at ease in his horrible orange skin.

Like Reagan did. Only twice as orange. And many times as pathological.

This is the biggest, dumbest, most human reason why Trump might win in November.

The electorate in the States, like the electorate here, like the population of most of the world...maybe ALL of the world...is generationally whipped by recession and public mendacity...by the failure of the globalisation project...by an epochal pessimism about EVERYTHING...and terrified of sudden, unexplained violence (all the more terrifying because of its suicidal, apocalyptic carelessness of personal and political consequences) that both reacts to and magnifies the mood of collapse and anxiety.

Trump's apparent ease with madness, his anger, his snarl of contempt, feels to many...appropriate to our times.

It is this combination of elite nihilism and general anxiety that gives the likes of Trump, Le Pen and Farage the fetid pool of opportunity they swim in. They are at home here, because they were ALREADY as fucked up as the world now seems to the rest of us...a long time ago. They are not Hitler...that was then and there, and this is here and now...but they are READY for ugliness: they are pre-prepared by their own resentments and loathing for our ugly times.

The Democratic convention tried very hard to project a positivity in which it really doesn't matter how bad an actor the CEO is...if the enterprise is healthy. But it isn't. And nobody believes it is.

Which is why it matters that Hillary is so uncomfortable as an actor...

It makes us uncomfortable with the show of optimism. It looks like just another lie. Everything is a lie. There is no truth. All there is...is energy.

And where is energy? Why it's in hate.

In every way except one, in the binary choice of a Presidential election...surely everyone has to see that it HAS to be Hillary. It MUST NOT be Trump. No one is going to get excited about Hillary, or even happy about it...but this is humanity we're talking about. So it HAS to be Hillary. The alternative is darkness like this generation in the West really has not known.

If only she wasn't so uncomfortable enjoying those balloons.

The Party is Over…and both Corbyn and his enemies know it.

What is going on now can no longer be seen as a fight for control of an existing institution. The split has already happened in all but name.  There are already two parties. There is no unitary Labour party to be fought over anymore.  There is no going back.

Let’s just be clear about that.  What is going on is not a principled fight between two wings of the Labour Party for control of that Party. That wouldn’t be anything new. Variations on the theme have been played out since Ramsey MacDonald, right the way through Bevan and Gaitskill, Castle and Wilson, Benn and Healey, Militant and Kinnock.

The difference between then and now is that back then there was something to fight over that would still be there no matter who won.  Not any more.  Now there is no scenario where EITHER wing can win the whole party over. What is happening now is a fight over the assets of a party that has already ceased to exist.  And both warring factions know it.

Quod Erat Demonstrandum, Ergo Split.

It’s not exactly news.  They’ve been effectively dysfunctional for a year or more. So bereft and nihilistic was the “establishment” wing of the party in the wake of their defeat in 2015 that Corbyn got on the ballot as a matter of balance and nostalgia and then won…much to his own surprise…not really because people were excited to hear a prospective labour leader, even one as crashingly dull as Corbyn, talk like a socialist…but because there was simply nothing left in the batteries of the rest of them…so that Corbyn’s pale imitation of conviction sounded , well…alive...at least by comparison.

Anyway, they may not have actually published the divorce papers yet, but the two parties have already separated without any hope of reconciliation and there is no prospect of either giving a shit about the kids. The assets are going to be split between the two…the affiliates, the members, the Union backing, the name and the headed notepaper.  There are precious few other assets and a good deal of financial debt.  The Tories barely need to get out of bed to have the next two or three elections in the bag. The demise of Labour south of the tweed is about to be as precipitate and terminal as it was in Scotland.

(Which pretty much kisses off any prospect of Labour recovery here, by the way.  All that was left was the prospect of a Labour government in Westminster.  That duck is floating upside down and displaying no signs of movement.)

So in 2020, there will be two Labour parties, both exhausted financially and personally by years of courtroom action…one probably calling itself “Real” Labour or something equally vacuous… taking votes off each other all over the country. There will be a party of socialist saints and a rump of socially democratic pragmatists…who may hope for some kind electoral alliance that includes the equally symbolic and saintly (and redundant) SNP "voice".

But I think that ship sailed in 2015. I fear that the Tories will just HOOVER up seats in England. That’s why St Theresa made a left wing speech in Downing Street before going in to summon the most right wing cabinet since Attila the Hun organised his cavalry.

(That is, if we’re lucky, and someone even more seriously nasty doesn’t emerge in the meantime when Brexit fails to send the immeegrunts packing and wages go even lower while prices batter through the roof on the back of a collapsing pound…)

Enough of all this.  There have been calls in Bella and elsewhere for practical economic arguments to get made for “indy” right now.

Well, here’s one.

A lot of people I talk to want to “wait and see” The electorate on both sides of the border are pretty wary of electoral politics right now, nationalist politics included. A lot of other people have been calling on Bella (which is mostly written by volunteers who happen to write about what they happen to write about) for economic arguments around the issue of “Indy.”

Well, not speaking as anything like an expert, here’s one with a bit of politics and a bit of economics and the future of the planet (or human civilisation, anyway) all rolled into one: Renewable energy is, in the view of a lot of people, a sine qua non of the economic case for “independence.” But…

It looks like all the investment needed for renewable energy research, from the UK as well as from the EU…is drying up. Theresa May is merging the department of energy and climate change which underwrote research into a new department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. I don’t know exactly what that means, but I do know that the mechanics of Brexit, economic and institutional, are going to absolutely consume all the time and all the money that the UK government has got.  A future for Scotland asnd its economic base is not remotely near being on the agenda, let alone in “a safe pair of hands”

Wait and See? While Trident is renewed?  While we leave the EU ? While Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition can’t even form a Shadow Cabinet?  Wait and see?

Like they say in disaster movies, I don’t know if we have that kind of time. 

Has anything Really Changed?

Once again, a new Prime Minister neither I nor my country ever voted for is kissing hands with the Queen this morning.  Once again, as of last night, the Labour Party is running a leadership contest between the unelectable and the unspeakable – between a leader who is heartily despised by one wing of the Party while being endorsed by another.  Admittedly, not the usual way round.

But has anything really changed?

This may sound like a peculiar question after the most extraordinarily nerve jangling political-drama nerdfest of a fortnight we`ve just been watching open mouthed down the wrong end of a Scottish telescope.  But the truth is that the biggest substantial change – The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland disentangling itself from the foreign contamination of the last forty years, as some would see it, has barely begun to have the legal, social, economic, cultural or constitutional impact that we all feel it is GOING to have but that none of us can really anticipate.

All we have is the feeling, (probably from the majority by now, despite the win for the Leave campaign), that whatever it is, it`s going to be bad. Except for those who are directly engaged with the immediate fall out, on the currency market and University`s watching European co- sponsors and research partners take their money up and walk away to take a look elsewhere, for example, we simply don`t have any meaningful idea what happens when you attempt unpick something as intricate and all pervasive in our lives as the EU has become by hitting it with a fucking big hammer.

Hitting delicate and complex mixes of social relationships with fucking big hammers is usually something the British Empire reserves for hot countries like Iraq. Of course, it occurs to me, as it has occurred to many people, that had we voted “yes” in 2014, we would have been looking again at a situation of hoping that everything will turn out all right in “the negotiations.”

We learn that, once again, as they did in regard to Scotland, that the British Establishment has made only the sketchiest preparations for a referendum result they didn`t want and weren`t expecting.  But it is a reasonable bet that the underlying reason for the Tory`s grateful avoidance of democracy in their leadership campaign (or succession) was dire warnings from Mark Carney at the Bank of England and elsewhere that with another shock about to hit the Eurozone in the shape of a run on the Italian Banks that now was not the time to be farting around with whether or not being a Mum made you a better person.  The Tory party membership is no more to be trusted than the labour party membership these days to be guided to the “correct” decision about important things. Look what happened last time they made the mistake of consulting “the people” about something that mattered?

The grateful relief with which the media and other out-liars of said Establishment have greeted the advent of St Teresa is above all predicated on the as yet only superficial intuition that she is “a safe pair of hands” to guide us through the choppy waters that lie ahead of the good ship Britannia. Her credentials as a “leader” seem consistent with a certain lineage of lower class Tory leadership that has wrested control back from the Etonians.  This is not the end of her resemblances to Margaret Thatcher, who, though likewise married to a millionaire, gathered a good deal of impetus from her status as an outsider to the charmed circle of ancestral privilege which Cameron re-installed atop the Tory party.

How that superficial resemblance plays out in Scotland, where the nuances of inner and outer circles that so pervade the life of the Oxbridge/Westminster bubble are opaque at best, remains to be seen.  The fate of the Labour party, itself mired in what in some ways is a continuation of its own perennial internal contradiction between representing of the “movement” and doing a passable imitation of a “government in waiting” is rather more emotionally charged up here in the wilderness. The alternatively degrading and hilarious spectacle of Angela Eagle calling on journalists who were already absent doing something more important competes with Cameron humming like Winnie the Pooh off to spend more time with his Hunnypots as the soundbyte of yesterday.  But the humiliation of the Labour Party in England promises, at this stage, to be every bit as thouroughgoing as the slow, self-destructive twitchings undergone by its Northern Branch Office, which, let us not forget, even at this late hour, is one bad tempered phone call (between the leader and her deputy) away from splitting down the middle just as decisively as the wider party is now fracturing on regional as well as ideological fissures.

It is surely impossible that anything resembling a unitary, British National labour party is going to emerge from this acrimony and embarrassment.  The last possible repository of anything resembling a positive and inclusive British Populism has now surely divided into a handful of socialist saints, a gang of 172 forming the nouveau SDP and a lot of completely disenfranchised, desperate English electors just waiting for Teresa May to hoover them up with one nation Toryism.  And that`s if we`re lucky enough that the Tories get them and not whatever vile successor Farage leads to replace UKIP

(Hint – Either way, that nation doesn`t include the likes of you! Tam, Mick or Khaliq!)

I have friends in South London who feel as estranged from the North London radicals who have coalesced around Corbyn as does any Northern English middle of the road trade unionist who is now thinking despairingly of voting UKIP.  If those Tories around may who can smell the blood that Labour is so conspicuously spreading all over itself can persuade Teresa May that, Brexit or no Brexit, now is the moment when they can shove Labour`s head so far down the toilet that they`ll forget what breathing was even like, and if enough Labour Turkeys can be persuaded to vote for Christmas…well, we could find ourselves in a one party Tory state setting nostalgic sail for the glory Days before we know it, certainly before we get around to what is the central order of business for Bella Caledonia and her band of fellow travelers in a very different direction.

What about Scotland?  You may well ask.  We are sure as hell not top of the agenda at the moment.  Even all those noises commentators were making a week or so ago about the “inevitability” of a second Independence referendum were included as more as a measure of the depth of the Brexit crisis than they were out of any real thought let alone considered familiarity with our circumstances.

Nicola Sturgeon took skillful advantage of the window of opportunity left by Tory disarray to do her very best to get what happened to us onto the wider European as well as British agenda. As is Alec Salmond this week attempting to make hay with the Chilcot report – that other epoch marking indictment of the failed experiment of high-minded globalization that I`d just about forgotten to mention.

But in the broader contexts of Europe`s on going crisis, and Britain`s contradictory impulse to tear everything up and keep it exactly the same as it was, Scotland, as it did way before the Union of 1707, is having to do what small countries do – dart about between the legs of warring giants, looking for advantage.

There is a pleasing simplicity about the slogan “You do what you want, we`re not going anywhere” that “we” have now adopted in regard to Europe…but we simply cannot anticipate yet what the broader context will look like by the time we could practically get round to another referendum, let alone what the political complexion of Scotland, never mind the UK or Europe will look like even 18 months from now.

But the Establishment in the shape of this morning`s feudal succession has gone for safety as it`s priority.  Its own safety that is, which is, of course, not at the same as ours.  And when the winds of Brexit DO start to blow, every instinct tells me that it is towards safety, whoever looks like providing it, that the electorate here in Scotland as well as in London and Wales and Doncaster, will be looking. The snake oil salesmen have been taking a couple of weeks off as they gleefully survey the damage they have wrought.  Expect some dark forces to be out on the prowl for our anxiety any time soon. 

The Somme, the really short 21st Century...the end of globalization...and Scotland in the storms of Brexit.

There are moments in history, two now, in my lifetime…when everything falls apart and, conversely, everything seems to fall into place.

100 years ago this morning, at the battle of the Somme, the international system that had lasted since Waterloo, more or less, came to symbolic and actual bloody and catastrophic grief. Those years of war, at which, for the British, the Somme sits as a particular trauma of local remembrance as well as global import, remade the world…initiated what Eric Hobsbawm called the “short Twentieth Century” - years of crisis and conflict that ended, he felt…and we all felt, I think, came to an end when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, and European Communism, which had seemed like a permanent factor in our lives while I was growing up,  collapsed like a house made of dried cowpats in less than two years thereafter.

Thus was born the global world.  It was the End of History.  The rule of the universal market, with universal democracy, with enshrined universal equality, policed by the forces that no longer needed to hold the red beast at bay, would settle upon us like a blanket of security and conspicuous consumption.  Why, we might even be able to address climate change…

So here we are now in our own wee corner of Globalization and its Discontents.  And if Boris Johnson (now exited stage left, pursued by a Gove) was the flag waving buffoon at the centre of the UK comedy Stage of the last few months, Gordon Brown has been the hero of his own tragedy on another part of the stage. He wrote last week in the Guardian, trying to put all this chaos in the context of the New Global Order…and suddenly, all that seems like so very long ago

Brown it was, along with Tony Blair, who in 1994 became the Globalisation Project leaders of the UK Labour Party, who would steer us into the brave new world where there were no countries any more – just a single market inhabited by identical consuming ants whose only collective identity was as individual players in the global game of buying and selling whatever we could lay our hands on, our industry, our labour, each other, our kidneys, our blood. Owing no loyalty except to themselves…oh, and the maintenance of the necessary “stability” of course, a stability that, it soon became apparent, could tolerate no other self-identification that its functional insects might be tempted to come up with or cling to.

Globalisation had its good points, don’t get me wrong.  It was predicated on human equality, universal assumptions about legality, property…oh yes, and “freedom of worship” if you were still interested in that kind of thing.  Now that the communists (at least the Russian ones) were out of the way of a universal ideology of the individual and the global market, in the early 1990s, we were setting sail into a peaceful, uniform sea where there would be no more storms, where calm…or “stability” as the “markets” like to call it…was hard wired into the ocean.

Of course, it was never quite like that. For one thing, the economic and manufacturing dynamo of the whole system was Communist China. But back then, John Major’s Euro-hating “Bastards” were a Thatcherite nostalgia cult at the edge of the Tory party, as apparently marginal to the future as the UKIP nutters who got themselves going back then, or indeed the SNP -irrelevant throwbacks to old political conflicts from the seventies, and even more buried tribalisms - no more to be considered as players in the new world than…say…Islamic fundamentalists.

Look where we are now.

Well, what do we know, and what remains to be found out? Let`s start in the middle of the scale and work our way up and down.

Theresa May, who kept herself wisely off the radar and off the telly during the referendum campaign, is going to be the leader of the Tory Party who, quite happily I expect, but with a concerned looking face on, will steer the UK into mid-Atlantic where it will presumably be sunk with a flag on top as a warning to shipping. Barring of course, some unforeseen series of accidents which will land us all in the shaking hands of Dr Liam Fox.

The Labour party, whose devotion to the values of fellowship and solidarity have been on such prominent display in the last week, will run the leadership contest they have been so desperately trying to avoid.  If Corbyn wins, the Labour party will plit in two…leaving 30 odd socialist saints on the one side, and The Gang of Two Hundred Zombie SDP on the other.

What both of these leviathans of the world`s leading democracy will try to avoid like the plague, of course, is the people…who have just proved they cannot be trusted. There will be no snap election if anyone can help it.  Though it will be tempting for the Tories to grind their heels into the faces of the Labour party or what remains of it, wiser heads know that an election right now, with UKIP hoovering up votes from Labour like demented hausfraus, isn`t worth the risk.  After all, getting rid of UKIP was the whole point wasn`t it? 

Last week seems long ago and far away.

As for the wider context of Europe, the threat to the EU is on the one hand, existential, but on the other hand, hard to measure.  After all, without the Brits there to be annoying and tell everybody else in Europe what they`re doing wrong all the time, the prospects for a revived and redesigned EU are possibly brighter than they were last week in the lost epoch of one rule to rule them all.  It may well be that a multi-tiered Europe emerges from all this.  Or the whole thing will fall apart and France and Germany and the Benelux countries will start again from scratch.

Crystal ball gazing has never been such a murky activity as it is now.

I think it is safe to say, however, that if the twentieth century of hot and cold war was short, the twenty-first, that of Globalisation and the Series Box Set, is already definitely at the end of season one even if it hasn`t quite been cancelled yet.  Can we be saved in any form of civilisation before the climate gets us?  Ask the Chinese…I`ve got no idea. This is the century of newly invented nationalisms…and as we know, and as the UK establishment has just found out, nationalisms come in many guises.  And English nationalism has just declared its independence day as June 23^rd 2016.  Who knew it was that easy?

One thing I do know, though.  That amid this chaos, Scotland needs its own voice, its own place, its own presence.  We need to be a distinct, visible factor in whatever comes next. And that we are, that Nicola Sturgeon is now getting profiles written in newspapers all over the world, just like she did in the UK press last year is yes, a tribute to her.

But it is mainly a tribute to “yes”, to the campaign of 2014, without which nothing, and of which this presence in the world`s consciousness , is a tangible result.