A Bespoke Deal for a Scottish Brexit. A tactical argument

I wish I could draw graphs...or flow charts...as I think it might help clarify my argument on a Scottish Brexit Deal being the probable way forward - but I'll try to set it out verbally step by step.

Right now, with everything still up in the air, we still need to oppose the UK leaving the EU by whatever means. A Westminster vote to remain, a UK wide  “People’s Vote” with remaining as an option. IF/WHEN these both fail…

Put forward a specific Scottish Brexit plan…more or less the Norway option…with the aim being to deliver what the Scottish Parliament agreed on…and has NEVER rescinded, Scotland staying in the single market... by itself if necessary.

(It is of no small significance that a bespoke deal for Northern Ireland is well within the bounds of possibility, and if the DUP were less important to the Tories numerically, it would almost certainly have happened by now.)

If the case is made for this by the SNP and the wider Yes movement, it will...or should... get the support of Remainers…it will look rational by contrast with Boris and Co and it will not scare off 2014 NO voters…because Independence will not be on the agenda.

Indpendence will not be the prefix to every argument. It will be the conclusion. And that is the right way round.

In the course of this autumn and winter, we will either get an exit deal on Brexit agreed by the UK government or we won’t. In neither scenario will any attention necessarily get paid to a specifically Scottish demand. This is not a reason not to make that demand. Loudly and repeatedly. And to stick with it.

Why? Because an exit deal for March 2019 is not the end of the story. In March, in theory, we enter into a transition period which ENDS in a new relationship between the EU and UK in 2021. Our argument is that at the END of this transition period that Scotland insists on a deal that keeps us in the single market.

Even now, even after March, it is theoretically possible that the UK will see that kind of sense, but it’s very unlikely. In practice, that would probably need to be a bespoke, specifically Scottish deal. Again, our sticking to the pragmatic outcome would be politically very strong.

Even if the dreaded “No Deal” happens, there would in practice need to be SOME deal. This is what the Rees Moggs and assorted loonies are shooting for. It is absolutely no more unrealistic for Scotland to shoot for a Single Market deal at the same time.

So…this time in 2019, the Scottish electorate would have a continuing mess of screaming that will constitute Full English Brexit…and, by contrast, a calm, pragmatic ambition which the Scottish political parties would find it difficult not to support. Because it wouldn’t have an IndyRef label stuck all over it.

The fact that Independence is almost certainly the only way for Scotland to maintain a healthy relationship with Europe would then be demonstrated rather than merely asserted.
Once again, Independence would be the conclusion not the predicarte. And that makes conversation possible with those who voted No in 2014.

In summary, I think that through any imaginable set of circumstances…and an awful lot that can’t be foreseen yet, a stated position right now that Scotland will only accept a Single Market Deal at the End of Transition, is far and away the strongest card we can play. And keep playing.

A Brexit Deal for Scotland? A Scottish Deal on Brexit.

As we enter a new Parliamentary term both in Holyrood and Westminster, to describe matters as being a wee bit “in flux” is something of an understatement.  It’s like those of us living on this cluster of islands off the coast of Europe are inhabiting different political worlds while remaining on one piece of territory.

While Boris Johnson calls Theresa May a suicide bomber in cahoots with Michel Barnier, that other famous Moslem, blowing a dog whistle to racists out of both ends of his ridiculous body, here in Scotland, we seem to be tearing ourselves to bits out of boredom and impotence, just for something to do. We aren’t having the fight we’d like to be having, it seems. So we’re fighting about something else…the timing of a second indyref, which can’t possibly be decided on… just for wanting something to fight about.

In Northern Ireland, meanwhile, they’ve  got a governng party whose sole interest seems to be on insisting that they don’t want to govern anything. The DUP have opted for Direct Rule from Westminster by default as part of the same bargain which is dragging those islanders whose constituent nations voted against Brexit over the cliff with those who voted for it.

Because next door, we’ve got both an England and, inexplicably, a Wales where, despite recent shifts in opinion polls, exit from the EU remains, or at least is treated, as the “settled will of the people”...without any real thought as to who “the people” might be. The people insist that the politicians “sort it out” and “get on with it” without, apparently, the slightest idea what “it” is. 

It is still possible that opinion will shift yet further…in favour, ultimately, one hopes, of what might at least be a comparatively Sane Brexit, but to be honest, I’m not sure I've got the imaginative energy to spare to give a lot of thought to the UK dimension of what’s going on any more.

I wish the nieghbours well, of course, but much in the same way as if I lived in say, Belgium. I don’t actually wish any harm on them, I respect their decision – just about - however much I regret it. Here in Belgium, I hope you in Scotland (and they) don’t suffer too much from the consequences of their decision…but it’s kind of up to them. There doesn’t seem to be a lot I can do about it.

You’ve tried.  You’ve argued that you think it’s a really bad idea…and, to be fair, they just might sort themselves out…they’ve got a few weeks left to do that, but their political parties seem to be totally paralysed by internal division and personal ambition and choosing Blind Brexit chaos by default.

In Holland and Belgium and the Republic of Ireland stability within the EU 27 seems to be the absolute strategic priority for the remaining members. Brexit will be a shock, but the collective decision seems to be that maintenance of the Union of 27 far outweighs any other consideration at this moment.

So imagine being Belgium for a minute.  Or being Ireland.  Imagine being in a position to ask : if they’re gonna do what they’re gonna do…what are WE gonna do?

Luckily, we in Scotland already have the answer. The Scottish Parliament, in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum, (albeit in a moment of briefly collectivised shock) already voted for what we’re going to do.  Right across the chamber.  Even the Tories.

We’re going to stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union. That’s the Scottish Deal. Whatever else there might or might not be a mandate for in Scotland, there’s a mandate for that. We’re going to stay, by some means, in the same trading arrangement with our Irish and continental nieghbours that we’re in now. Just like Holland or Belgium or the Republic of Ireland, we’re going to continue to respect the four freedoms movement of goods, services, money and people…just as we do now.

Imagine if we could do that!

I’ve got news for you.  We CAN do that.  We SHOULD do that. We MUST do that.

We must say to our nieghbours south of the border that we respect their decision, but it’s THEIR decision, and not ours.  

But it’s too late, everyone says…we’re out of the EU in March next year! That’s what the law says!  That’s what the constitution says! We voted to remain in the UK in 2014!  We’re trapped!  We trapped ourselves!  We failed!

Not quite. As part of the UK, we are indeed leaving the EU in March next year, but only as a matter of form.  What actually HAPPENS in March (unless there is the dreaded NO DEAL…) is that we enter a transition period, nominally until the end of 2020, during which all the changes to the UK relationship to the EU Single Market and Customs Union take effect.

All we do right NOW, as Scotland, on the assumption that by hook or by crook at some point there WILL be a UK deal on leaving the EU,is to insist that at the end of that transition, whenever it really comes and by whatever means we get there, when it comes to defining a NEW trading relationship between these Islands and the EU, Scotland will remain in the Single Market and the Customs Union. Just like the Republic of Ireland.

We insist right now on the same end result no matter what Boris Johnson led chaos there is until there IS a deal…that at the end of the process of leaving, we “implement” or “transition to” a situation where Scotland maintains a status quo ante bellum relationship with the EU as far as trade goes. Come what may, by whatever route it takes, Scotland stays in the Single Market and the Customs Union.

Because even if the worst comes to the worst and Boris is PM by Christmas, even if we do crash out initially, there will still need to be a deal on leaving, because there needs to be a transition period that will end up with a yet to be negotiated new relationship between the EU and the UK. Everyone, even Boris, actually knows that.

In any case. That’s not our problem because we’re not leaving.  Like they do in Belgium, we respect the decision of the Parliament in Westminster In the name of democracy. But we in Scotland demand the reciprocal respect that our decision to maintain our relationship with the EU also be respected. Because that is what our people and our Parliament voted for. If we do that, if we are clear and unequivocal about that, then everything else will follow. 

Whether we get treated with respect, or we don’t, after all the shouting, it all ends the same way. With a rewritten relationship between Scotland and the rest of these islands, including the bit that is already uniquivocally staying in the EU.

There are many, many variations on exactly what happens on the basis of this principle, but here are a couple of things that will happen in the short run.

What will follow first is the following refrain of voices:

“But Scotland staying in the Single Market would mean a hard border between England and Scotland! That will mean an end to Free Trade and movement between England and Scotland!”

Really?  Seriously?  Is that all you’ve got?

If it is the insistence of the British Government that Brexit will mean no such border will exist between Northern Ireland and the Republic, which are ALREADY two separate States with different currencies…(and it is) ….one inside and the other outside the Single Market and Customs Union…then on the basis of what possible logic can such a border come into existence between a Scotland and England who will still, in 2020/21, be part of the same State?

The Brexiteers are similarly hoist on their own petard with every single argument they’ve got against a distinctly Scottish Deal on Brexit on the gallows of the Irish Border. But never mind the shouting and squealing and the talk of suicide vests… we can be very clear and decided on one thing: that no matter what the UK Parliament comes up with, Scotland is staying in Trading Europe. That is our deal with Europe, that is what is going to come at the end of any “transition” or “implementation”. We’ve already decided that. Just let Ruth Davidson vote against it. Nobody else will.

What the nieghbours do about it is up to them. They might decide to abandon us as carelessly (and without knowledge or thought) as they appoint Secretaries of State for Northern Ireland who don’t have the first clue as to the culture or history or even existence of that Province of the Empire. They might send a gunboat. They might even decide to kick us out of the United Kingdom completely!

I don’t have a crystal ball any more than anyone else does.But if we simply do the right thing right now, if we make the simple assertion of democratic self government that when Brexit comes, whether it’s Blind, Batty or In Name Only, Scotland is staying, by some means yet to be negotiated, in the Single Market and the Customs Union, then it is in the practical discovery of what those means of staying turn out to be - for example, in a new, direct negotiating relationship with the EU and with London, on the basis of our soveriegn trade policy - that we will rewrite the British Constitution. All we need to do is be clear in our own intentions. Through that simple assertion of self government will self government come.

Which is probably why we feel we have the time to get cross with each other about the timing of Indyref 2. For what it's worth, I genuinely think that argument is a distraction, a repositry of frustrated energy. I genuinely think that Brexit is doing all the heavy lifting we need to be effectively an independent 21^st Century European country by the end of the next decade.

No matter what the apparent complexities of the political boorach down South, if we stick to our guns, by some way or other, we’ll get there. I genuinely think that it’s as simple as that.